Six Reasons Renting Can Be Smarter Than Buying

S&P Index Shows Continued Rise In Home Prices

We tend to think of buying a home as a mandatory part of the American dream. But despite the constant messaging telling us to buy, homeownership may be overrated. A lot of people who shop for homes would actually be better off renting.

We tend to overlook the historical factors that made homeownership so ubiquitous. Long ago, most families rented or (more rarely) built their homes. Since the New Deal era, the federal government has subsidized homeownership through loan guarantees and the mortgage interest deduction. This policy framework has greatly benefited the real estate industry, as well as millions of homeowners (particularly those who are already wealthy). But owning a home doesn’t make sense for everyone, and in some areas renting could be the smartest move.

(Full disclosure: I own my New York coop but I often wonder why—New York has great rental stock and regulated landlords.)

Renters Don’t Pay For Repairs 

Here is one of the biggest joys of renting. When things go wrong, renters call the landlord. The stove breaks or the roof leaks—the landlord pays. The average annual cost of home repair and maintenance costs is typically something like 2-4% of the value of the home, and that doesn’t include thousands more in insurance and other costs.

What’s worse is that repair expenses don’t come in nice even charges. Depending on the nature of the repair, it can get quite costly in one year. Those tempted to skip maintenance are participating in the destruction of their own property.

Renters Get Nice Stuff Too Expensive For Owners 

One of the most wasteful aspects of American life is the existence of dead pieces of capital that many of us own but use only 5% of the time. The two-ton car parked in the garage, the dusty gym equipment, the in-ground pool, the pricey washer and dryer: these consumer durables sit unused because you alone own and operate them. (Some people rent out their unused automobile capital with Lyft and Uber, but you have to apply your own labor to that.)

Who can own a pool? Answer: far fewer people than can open a fraction of a pool! As it happens, we typically only use a fraction of a pool. Luxuries such as a gym or a luscious garden come standard at many apartment complexes. Owning a home often means owning deadweight capital.

Renters Don’t Tie Up Their Money 

Another advantage is not having to put up a huge upfront cost like a down payment. Although renters often pay a security deposit and first and last month’s rent, these costs are small in comparison to those made by owners. When purchasing a home with a mortgage, you’re required to have a sizable down payment far more than the renter’s upfront costs. If you put down a chunk of money, say $50,000, towards a down payment to buy a home, that is your asset. That $50,000 could instead be earning high risk-adjusted returns on a low-fee investment—say a Vanguard mutual fund—which is a lot more liquid and a lot less expensive to manage than putting all those eggs in one basket.

A note about prices: If the house you are looking to buy costs more than 20 times the annual rent the home could fetch, get the house may be overvalued. For example a $400,000 home should rent for $1,667 per month or more. If so, it is a good deal. This ratio is based on a price earning ratio of 20. In times of low interest rates the breakeven ratio can be higher, especially in areas with soaring home prices.

Renters Have More Bargaining Power at Work 

You need to be able to credibly leave a job to be well treated by employers. Mobile workers can move for a pay raise or to make a career move. Monopsony power is tied to low mobility and anchoring yourself to a place just gives that power to the employer.

Renters can also live in neighborhoods beyond their reach, whereas home owners stay with their socio-economic spheres. Renters can live virtually anywhere—a tiny apartment in Greenwich Village or a townhouse in Queens. Homeowners are more restricted to neighborhoods they can afford.

Renters Have More Flexibility In Recessions 

Some of the worst-hit families in the Great Recession were those who lost their jobs and were stuck in their homes. It was even worse if you had to sell assets in your 401(k) at depressed values to pay a mortgage for a house that was underwater (that is, where the mortgage was more than what the house was worth).

By contrast, renters can move to a cheaper place without the hardship of selling assets or paying a mortgage in a recession. Landlords bear the risk of financial hardship, but they are usually more able to plan and capitalize losses.

Renting Can Be Good For The Economy And The Climate 

Renting is better for the earth than buying, thanks to better-managed properties and the sharing of amenities and capital. Since landlords bear the risk of utility costs rising during the term of the lease, they have an incentive to keep costs low through better energy efficiency.

Rentals are also usually smaller than houses, which keeps down insurance and utility costs. That said, renters do pay some portion of insurance costs because they are folded into the rent, as are property taxes. (A side note: Some people might think that a benefit of renting versus owning is that renters don’t pay property taxes. They do. Taxes are folded into the rent. There are good reasons to rent and not buy, but property tax is not one of them.)

The Bottom Line

Homeownership does have its merits, of course. Owning a home might be beneficial over the long run if the house price appreciates more than a diversified financial portfolio, or if people don’t have to move for their jobs or family, or if marriages last, or if neighborhoods and financial situations don’t change.

Crucially, the housing market is often segmented, meaning rental stock can be of lower quality for the same carrying costs as homeownership—in that case, buying might make sense. Some people really like to improve their homes and renovate, while your landlord will only make “necessary repairs.”

However, for those who want bargaining power at work, would like to avoid the hassles and financial uncertainty of homeownership, and don’t like owning so much durable consumer capital, renting might be a better option.

 

Falling China Auto Sales Drag Down The Global Auto Sales Outlook This Year and Next, Fitch Ratings Says

Falling new-car sales in China are the biggest reason global auto sales are expected to fall around 3.1 million units or about 4% in 2019, and a major reason there’s “little reason to anticipate a rebound in global car sales in 2020,” according to Fitch Ratings.

The downturn in China puts pressure on margins and costs in the rest of the world, and it’s a big deal for the U.S. auto companies, especially General Motors, which has a much bigger sales footprint in China, than Ford Motor Co. or Fiat Chrysler Automobiles.

In the third quarter, GM reported its sales in China were down 17.5%, to 689,531. Cadillac was the only GM brand that outsold the year-ago quarter in China, with an increase of 10.9%, GM said.

Rival Ford Motor Company and its joint ventures in China said last month third quarter sales were 131,060 units, down 30.3% from a year ago.

Fiat Chrysler said sales were down 24% in the third quarter in China, to just 35,000 units, the company said.

Global auto sales are forecast to be about 77.5 million in 2019, down about 4% from 2018, Fitch said in a recent report. Global passenger car sales fell to 80.6 million in 2018, from 81.8 million in 2017, the ratings agency said, citing data from the International Organisation of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers.

“The main source of weaker-than-expected sales this year has been China,” Fitch said. Year-to-date through October, sales in China were down 11% vs. the first 10 months of 2018. For the full year of 2019, Fitch said it expects China sales to fall about 2.1 million units, or about 9% vs. 2018.

Auto sales are off in other major global markets, too, Fitch said. The ratings agency said it expects sales to decline “nearly 2%” in the U.S. market and Europe, as well as a decline of about 5.5% for Brazil, Russia and India combined.

“Weakness has been quite widespread,” Fitch said.

5 Ways to Position Your Business For Growth In 2020

Entrepreneurs never stop thinking about what’s next for their businesses and how to make the most of what’s ahead—but in the times we live in, advance planning is not always easy. Getting in front of the trends can be especially challenging for one-person businesses and other very small firms, which usually don’t have a big budget for market research or marketing.

For insight on how to grow your business in 2020 no matter what your budget, I spoke recently with Jen Kem, a brand futurist who runs the marketing firm KemComm Media Group and the Master Brand Institute, which teaches entrepreneurs brand building. Forbes readers met Kem, based in Walnut Creek, Calif., when I wrote about her story of entrepreneurial reinvention last year.

Here are some of Kem’s predictions for 2020 and her ideas on how to make the most of what’s ahead.

Human connection will matter more than ever. Many people are lonely, isolated and alienated in a world that’s increasingly driven by technology. Smart entrepreneurs will find ways to devote the time they’ve freed up with technology to getting to know customers better, even if that’s through simple methods like taking a few extra minutes to talk with them.  “Where you put your time and money needs to be in ‘real life’ and relationships,” Kem says.

Kem recommends building a small, close-knit network populated by people who help you connect to your higher purpose, rather than spreading yourself thin among a large group or making only superficial contact once in a while.  “People don’t want relationships to be a ‘fly by,’” she says.

Also look for ways to create experiences that help people feel they are are part of a “movement,” as the cycling brand Peleton has done, she recommends. Connecting your customers to like-minded people adds to their sense of belonging.

What if you don’t have Peleton’s budget? It doesn’t matter. There are many ways to create genuine community on a shoestring, like planning a live event or workshop, she says.

Keeping your creative output true to your values will give you an edge. What attracts customers to your brand and business will be content or other things you create (or curate) that truly convey your values. That applies to every size business, whether it’s the next unicorn or a one-person shop. “If you’re a small business, you are actually building a brand,” says Kem.

The more consistent your message is and the more each piece of content syncs up with the values you’ve already expressed, the more powerful your brand will be.

The marketing guru Seth Godin and Eat Pray Love author Elizabeth Gilbert are good examples of this principle in action, she says. Both are constantly coming up with new ideas and books, but their fundamental values are very consistent.

Focus matters. It’s hard to get people to buy from you if they don’t truly understand what you sell. Make a focused offer that reflects what the market wants and shows how the brand will deliver it, she advises. Clarity will help your marketing message get your prospects’ attention in a very noisy and distracting environment.

Just make sure you do your homework (and plenty of experimenting) first, to figure out what your target customer actually wants. “You need to know what is happening and decide what is relevant for how you do business,” advises Kem.

You’ll win by creating real, lasting value. Your business will have more staying power if you find a way to make a difference that goes beyond simply addressing a pain point or desire of your customers.

Kem points to an exercise that Cynthia Montgomery, a professor of business administration at Harvard Business School, developed. Ask yourself what would happen if your business died. Would anyone miss it? Would the world be the same? If no one would be sad it was gone, it’s time to devote more time to uncovering what matters to your customers and finding the intersection with your own purpose as an entrepreneur.

The mindset behind this approach is very different from the purely results-driven thinking that some businesses have embraced, without considering their long-term impact on the people whose lives they affect or the world. “It’s about profit, people and the planet,” she says.

Your platform is your ticket to future growth. Ideally, every entrepreneur should try to reach their community in both the digital world and the analog one, creating what Kem calls “an undeniable body of work.” For instance, you might have both a strong Instagram presence and hold live events, such as workshops, seminars, retreats or conferences. (Don’t spread yourself too thin across social media she advises. It’s better to go “all in” with one social platform and build a strong presence there).

As you build your platform, keep asking yourself how you can adjust to a changing world. “How can you stay relevant and grow while being true to you?” she asks. “You want to stay profitable and relevant to your clients.”

That mindset will make you very referable and help your business thrive, no matter what headlines have in store for us in 2020.

Funding Xchange Completes $10.3 Million Round

Currency

Fintech firm Funding Xchange today announces securing an £8 million funding round ($10.3 million), led by Downing Ventures and Gresham House Ventures. The business funding marketplace is known for partnering with the likes of Monzo, MoneySuperMarket and Experian to provide instant, personalized and transparent quotes for SMEs.

Having created the “world’s first intelligent decisioning platform that transforms efficiency in SME lending by holding lenders’ underwriting models,” businesses are able to request quotes in under four minutes and receive funds in 10 minutes, a step change from how long it usually takes – occasionally days or weeks.

Continuing to harness the integrated access to finance with payment solutions and cloud accounting software, the new investment will enable Funding Xchange to roll out its white label ‘lending in a box solution’ which digitises key steps in the underwriting process.

In addition to this, the organization’s focus on transactional data digital decisioning has led to former Managing Director of Experian Business Information Max Firth and former Managing Director of Experian pH Paul Henry joining the business to push the provision of decisioning solutions to banks and lenders and deliver data analytics with the launch of Funding Xchange’s SME Lending monitor, respectively.

Katrin Herrling, respected fintech entrepreneur who founded and heads up the company, says: “We are delighted that Downing and Gresham House have joined us on our exciting journey to help reshape a sector that is rapidly adopting digital solutions using new data sources to enable the delivery of seamless, instant access to finance. This is creating the opportunity to provide small businesses with the same transparency and ease of access to finance that consumers have become accustomed to.

 

Today’s Must-Reads For Entrepreneurs: What Facebook’s New Algorithm Means For Businesses

(DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS/AFP/Getty Images)

News and insights from around the Web:

Marketing

Facebook says its new newsfeed algorithm will favor friends and family over brands and publishers: “Video is an important part of the ecosystem. It’s been consistently growing. But it’s more passive in nature. There’s less conversation on videos, particularly public videos. There will be less content directly from (professional) Pages. Page content will still be an important part of the ecosystem, but it will shift a little bit. Content that is shared and talked about between friends will grow, and content that’s directly consumed from Pages directly will shrink slightly.”

Here’s how the ad community is reacting to Facebook’s changes: “Businesses will need to rethink their Facebook strategies for 2018, starting with reducing their post frequency to share only highly relevant and engaging posts. One question that still remains is: What does this mean for paid content? Will ads and boosted posts be subject to the same limitations? I’m also interested to see in the next few months if Facebook’s ad revenue will surge from businesses putting more dollars behind their content, or if it will drop from businesses redirecting their dollars to other channels.”

It’s time to start thinking about how you can use voice search in your marketing: “Your first and most powerful approach is to include more long-tail keywords in your search engine optimization (SEO) campaign. In case you aren’t familiar, long-tail keywords are longer phrases, with several words, usually in a conversational sentence-based format. They’re different from ‘head’ keywords, which are shorter, with usually 1-2 words, and target a broad topic or category. For example, a head keyword might be something like ‘hot dogs,’ while a long-tail keyword might be something like “what’s the best hot dog stand near me?” This is important to note, since the majority of voice searches tend to be long and conversational like this example; optimizing for them increases the likelihood that you’ll appear for voice searches.”

Human Resources

Is Glassdoor improving workplace culture? “Glassdoor claims that eighty-three per cent of job seekers in the U.S. read its reviews. (A recent survey by Software Advice puts the number at just under fifty per cent.) There are reviews of jobs at mall kiosks, truck stops, and Amazon warehouse facilities. But it is in higher-paid industries like tech and consulting, where workers wield the most negotiating power, that the reviews hold the most sway. Beth Steinberg, the chief people officer at the online insurance company Zenefits, who previously worked at Electronic Arts, Facebook, and Nike, told me, ‘It’s pretty rare that a job candidate doesn’t look at Glassdoor before they come in. Often, they bring it up in the interview. They’ll say, ‘I read this on Glassdoor. How do you respond?” Anne Diebel, who works for Q.R.I., a private-investigation firm often hired by investors, recalled using the site to conduct a background check on a C.E.O.: ‘The Glassdoor reviews taught us that his peers saw him as entrepreneurial, while the staff saw him as arrogant, a perception that was confirmed by interviews we did.'”

The labor market is now so tight that even inmates are landing jobs: “In Dane County, Wis., where the unemployment rate was just 2 percent in November, demand for workers has grown so intense that manufacturers are taking their recruiting a step further: hiring inmates at full wages to work in factories even while they serve their prison sentences. These companies were not part of traditional work-release programs that are far less generous and rarely lead to jobs after release.”

Andela is trying to solve the developer shortage by training workers in the very countries Donald Trump has been disparaging: “The cost of an Andela worker may be cheaper than a top-level developer in San Francisco. But that’s not the reason to hire our people. They should look at our people through the lens of diversity. The U.S. has 1.6 million open software developer jobs right now. Growing companies are not going to be able to fill those jobs with local hires. There are five open jobs for every one software developer.”

Pricing

Here’s a look at what restaurants really make on their meals: “Healy calculated how fixed costs factor in to how much Baan Thai makes off of this rice noodle dish. ‘Everything I make costs me about $6 to put on someone’s table,’ he says. To arrive at that number he took the total cost of what it took to run the restaurant in December, not including food ingredients, and divided it by the total number of dishes and drinks sold that month. ‘One of the biggest misconceptions is that if the restaurant is full, you’re cranking money hand over fist,’ he says. ‘You really have to have a place packed out seven days a week with a line before you start making huge numbers. We’re just a small business.’ Every choice the restaurant makes is profit-driven. When a couple asks to sit at a table set for four, Baan Thai staff decline. ‘We are waiting in the hopes that a four-top will come in,’ Healy says. ‘We’re not trying to be rude—we need the money. Please take this slightly less awesome table so I can pay our employees tonight.’ That’s also why the restaurant charges for substitutions. Want shrimp instead of chicken? That’s $3 extra. ‘Otherwise we take a loss,’ Healy says.”

Will anyone pay $4,000 for a treadmill? “Any company that wants to sell a $4,000 treadmill is obviously aiming for a high-flying audience. But before you click away in proletarian disgust, there is something deeper worth studying about Peloton, its fanatical fan base and what its unusual path to success might portend for the future of the gadget business. In an industry dominated by smartphone apps, cloud services and cheap knockoffs, hardware companies have had a hard time getting traction. But Peloton said it did nearly $400 million in sales last year, up from about $170 million in 2016, and said it planned to reach profitability this year. It’s done all this on the strength of a singular insight: The gadget itself isn’t as important as the service. Peloton does not sell just a simple piece of hardware. Instead, the company spent tens of millions of dollars creating an inviting experience, complete with brand-ambassador celebrities and high-end retail locations. At the core of its business is a beguiling online service: Get on the bike, turn on the screen, and you are instantly connected with live fitness classes tailored to your preferences and athletic abilities. It’s like having a personal trainer who comes to your house whenever you like.”

A UK restaurant is charging based on the time of your meal: “One of London’s leading restaurants will today start pioneering a new pricing model based on the travel industry, with different charges depending on the day of the week and time of your booking. Bob Bob Ricard, known for a luxurious dining room where each table has a call-button for Champagne, will offer exactly the same menu, only prices are 25 percent lower for off-peak times such as Monday lunch and 15 percent off mid-peak, including dinner on Tuesdays and Sundays. Book for Saturday night and it’s full price. ‘The idea just came from looking at how the rest of the world functions,’ said owner and founder Leonid Shutov. ‘Airlines wouldn’t be able to exist, the business model wouldn’t work unless you could balance supply and demand. Everything that we have taken that is widely accepted in the modern economy and applied to restaurants, seems to have worked.'”

Immigration

ICE is getting more aggressive with its workplace raids: “Targeting 7-Eleven, a mainstay in working-class communities from North Carolina to California, seems to have conveyed the intended message. ‘It’s causing a lot of panic,’ said Oscar Renteria, the owner of Renteria Vineyard Management, which employs about 180 farmworkers who are now pruning grapevines in the Napa Valley. When word of the raids spread, he received a frenzy of emails from his supervisors asking him what to do if immigration officers showed up at the fields. One sent a notice to farmhands warning them to stay away from 7-Eleven stores in the area. ‘Our work force frequently visits 7-Elevens,’ said Mr. Renteria. ‘They’re very nervous. It’s another form of reminding them that they’re not welcome.'”

Toronto is developing a taste for Syrian food: “Until recently, Syrian cuisine hardly existed in Toronto. With just a few hundred families, the Syrian population was too small to support a restaurant scene. But over the past two years, following the high-profile resettlement of more than 50,000 refugees in Canada, the Toronto area — where over 11,000 of them live — is experiencing the green shoots of a Syrian-food boom. The entrepreneurs behind these ventures display the striking diversity of Syria’s refugee population. They are as young as 17 and as old as 70, urban professors as well as illiterate farmers. They identify as Shia, Sunni, Druze, Kurd, Alawite, Christian or just Syrian. Some worked in food businesses back home. Others never cooked in their lives.”

Startups

Until recently, venture capitalists weren’t interest in investing in chip startups: “But then came the tech industry’s latest big thing — artificial intelligence. A.I., it turned out, works better with new kinds of computer chips. Suddenly, venture capitalists forgot all those forbidding roadblocks to success for a young chip company. Today, at least 45 start-ups are working on chips that can power tasks like speech and self-driving cars, and at least five of them have raised more than $100 million from investors. Venture capitalists invested more than $1.5 billion in chip start-ups last year, nearly doubling the investments made two years ago, according to the research firm CB Insights.”

Here are 10 startups to watch that are NOT in Silicon Valley: “Skuid’s name is an acronym for Scalable Kit for User Interface Design, which succinctly sums up the company’s goal — it wants to make the process of building enterprise apps easier and quicker. The secret to Skuid’s success is a ‘codeless’ interface that allows users to easily drag and drop components from multiple sources — including Oracle, Salesforce, SAP, and Microsoft — to build apps. Skuid counts Intuit, Jet, and Hewlett-Packard Enterprise among its customers.”

Retail

The Supreme Court is going to decide whether online retailers have to collect sales tax: “The clear signal from the justices is that they may be ready to reverse themselves and demand that online retailers collect and remit sales taxes, even in states where they have no physical presence. That would be a victory for states and traditional businesses, but a defeat for smaller online retailers who claim they cannot navigate dozens of state sales tax systems the way major players such as Amazon do.”

Dollar General is growing by serving customers who have fallen out of the middle class: “‘Dollar stores’ core customers are lower-income consumers, which have been unfortunately growing,’ said Ken Perkins, president at Retail Metrics Inc. He noted that the American middle class has been shrinking for decades. The Pew Research Center found that 50 percent of the adult population in 2015 was middle class, down from 61 percent in 1971. Perkins’ firm found that the middle class had decreased in 203 of 229 metropolitan areas from 2000 to 2014. The trend has helped make dollar stores one of only five retail sectors projected to have operating income growth above 5 percent this year, a Moody’s report found. (The others are online retailers, off-price, home improvement, and supermarkets.)”

Holiday retail sales exceeded expectations: “Retail sales during November and December increased 5.5 percent, to about $692 billion, from a year earlier, according to data released on Friday by the National Retail Federation. It was the largest increase in holiday sales since the recession of 2008, exceeding the federation’s forecast of $682 billion, or growth of about 4 percent. The trade group said the strong numbers showed that the retail industry might not be as fundamentally troubled as many analysts perceived it to be.”

Exit Strategies

Boxed — aka Costco for Millennials — is talking about a $500 million deal with Kroger: “Boxed has more recently pushed into its own private brands and added a fast-growing business-to-business unit for offices. Box’s private label – something others such as Amazon and Costco have increasingly pushed – currently accounts for about 20% of its about $100 million in sales. With millions of users, Boxed’s average customer purchases between seven and 10 items per order, higher than typical for ecommerce. Its business-facing unit, which accounts for about 20% of sales, has grown at a triple-digit clip and accounts for almost half its new business, with anchor clients including Charity Water, Delta, United Airlines and Snap. In a previously unpublished interview with Forbes from November, Huang said “the secret was out” on Boxed increasingly turning to business-to-business sales for its long-term growth. ‘Staples and Office Depot are challenged these days,’ he said. ‘It’s a huge industry and the incumbents are in a weaker position. B2B will be larger than B2C [business-to-consumer] sales.'” (In this interview with Amy Feldman, Chieh Huang talked about how he came to found Boxed.)

The GOP Tax Law

Chrysler Fiat is spending $1 billion to modernize a Michigan plant and move jobs there from a plant in Mexico: “The automaker also said it would award $2,000 bonuses to each of its 60,000 hourly and salaried employees in the United States. ‘These announcements reflect our ongoing commitment to our U.S. manufacturing footprint and the dedicated employees who have contributed to FCA’s success,’ the company’s chief executive, Sergio Marchionne, said in a statement. The automaker said both actions were ‘made possible in part’ by the tax bill that President Trump signed into law last month. Mr. Marchionne added that ‘it is only proper’ that employees share in the savings generated by the tax bill.”

Critics say the tax law will send factories and jobs abroad: “Under the new law, income made by American companies’ overseas subsidiaries will face United States taxes that are half the rate applied to their domestic income, 10.5 percent compared with the new top corporate rate of 21 percent. ‘It’s sort of an America-last tax policy,’ said Kimberly Clausing, an economist at Reed College in Portland, Ore., who studies tax policy. ‘We are basically saying that if you earn in the U.S., you pay X, and if you earn abroad, you pay X divided by two.’ What could be more dangerous for American workers, economists said, is that the bill ends up creating a tax break for manufacturers with foreign operations. Under the new rules, beyond the lower rate, companies will not have to pay United States taxes on the money they earn from plants or equipment located abroad, if those earnings amount to 10 percent or less of the total investment.”

Management

The delicate dance of a progressive CEO in the age of Trump: “Mr. Hudson has joined other corporate executives, normally as tight-lipped a bunch as can be found, who are commenting on social and political issues like never before. …  he is aware that people who are drawn to Sonic because they like the food — or are fans of the company’s popular commercials featuring two male improv comedians in a car — may not want a side of political talk from the chief executive. In today’s fractured political climate, it does not take much to end up on the wrong side of a boycott. “I do feel one of my chief responsibilities is to work to ensure the success of our brand and our franchisees’ opportunities,” Mr. Hudson said in an interview last month. “Our franchisees make big bets on us doing the right thing with the brand — and by big bets, I mean they bet their futures, homes, mortgages, hopes and aspirations for their kids.”

Regulation

Here’s how a coal baron’s wish list became the president’s to-do list: “The March 1 memo, which was obtained by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and shared with The New York Times, is addressed to Vice President Mike Pence. The sweeping wish list of regulatory overhauls includes ending regulations on greenhouse gas emissions and ozone and mine safety, as well as cutting the staff of the Environmental Protection Agency “at least in half” and overhauling the Labor Department’s office of mine safety. ‘I give President Trump and his administration credit for being bold, being passionate and being correct in addressing a lot of these issues that were on my list here,’ Mr. Murray said in an interview Tuesday.”

Giving Back

Shutterstock

For 14 years, a New York City bodega owner has been taking in homeless men and giving them shelter: “Here, beneath the shelves of instant soup and paper towels is an unauthorized shelter in its most primal form — a dank unfinished basement, cavelike and fetid, where the men sleep on pallets amid pools of dark water on the cement floor. But there is real warmth, the men say. It comes from behind the deli counter, where seven days a week, stands the welcoming bodega owner, Candido Arcángel. The shop is zoned for commercial use, and the basement does not have the required certificate of occupancy to permit people to live there. Mr. Arcángel has not made the necessary applications to the Department of Buildings to convert it into habitable space, which would require an inspection to determine if it is safe to do so. The absence of permits has not deterred Mr. Arcángel, who says his reasoning for opening his basement to the homeless is simple. ‘Because they don’t have,’ he said. ‘And I do.”

So what I sometimes do is “doctor” the chart manually to de-noise it. The recent sharp rise and fall is pure noise: The recent fall and rise on the Bitcoin chart is pure noise The recent fall and rise on the Bitcoin chart is pure noiseCREDIT: ADVFN Something hit the price then an event (the president of China spoke on blockchain) poked it up. These events are outside of “the trend” so let’s imagine they didn’t happen. Like a soviet political artist, let’s airbrush these inconvenient events from history. You get this: The Bitcoin chart with the noise removed The Bitcoin chart with the noise removedCREDIT: ADVFN Now that’s a pretty clear picture. Bitcoin is tanking towards a capitulation. That bottom looks to be quite near in terms of time but the bottom is hard to call. Here are some ideas: Some suggestions about where the bottom might be for Bitcoin Some suggestions about where the bottom might be for BitcoinCREDIT: ADVFN I think the high and low bounds are unlikely but you can’t really guess or for that matter buy the low because a capitulation, even though it looks important on the chart later, is often an ephemeral moment that only exists for minutes and trades little volume. To reverse this trend will not take much but to do so will need a catalyst and there is none in sight at the moment. Instead there looks to be a hodlers’ opportunity to get some cheap coins coming up.

Sunrise in New York City

Everything is in place for finding opportunities in December’s stock market:

  • Underinvested (in stocks) investors who rode the “recession-is-coming” train too long
  • Overinvested (in bonds) investors who are uncertain what to do following the Fed’s final interest rate cut
  • Widespread belief of “Okay, no recession, but the 2020 economy will grow slowly, and the stock market will deliver little”
  • A too-soon interest in value stocks (in the hope that undervaluation will outperform in the growth stock market)
  • A broad range of individual stock performance for 2019, meaning lively “loss harvesting” selling in December that creates opportunities for buyers
  • Finally, the shift in worrywarts’ warnings from “a recession is coming!” to “the financial system (extreme borrowing and overleveraging) is out of control!” Once again, such warnings, like those about a recession, have some supporting data, but are too early

Today’s headlines reflect the widespread nervous attitude

Very important: Regard broad agreement of a belief and investment theme as similar to a popular fad. In investing, such popularity of thought is already reflected in stock prices. Therefore, we may confidently consider the contrarian approach. And, today, that means we can expect 2020’s economic growth and stock market returns will be better than expected. Already, that evaluation is being supported by recent data, particularly this quarter’s earnings reports, October’s economic reports and consumers (sentiment and retail sales up).

Today’s articles about 2020’s stock market outlook:

  • The New York Times (November 30) – “The Stock Market’s Dangers Are Easier to See Now”
  • The Wall Street Journal (November 29) – “Wall Street’s 2020 Prediction: The Stock Market Will Have a So-So Year – Many firms predict single-digit returns after a robust 2019 rally”
  • Bloomberg.com (November 27) – “RBC Sees Stock Turbulence Ahead as S&P 500 Pushes Toward 3,350 – Predicts S&P 500 gains will slow with near-term pullback risk – Joins others taming outlook amid political, growth uncertainty”
  • Barron’s (November 23) – “A Bear Market Could Still Hit Next Year. Here’s How to Prepare.”
  • CNBC (November 23) – “Wall Street’s stock forecasters see just a 5% gain in 2020”
  • USA Today (November 15) – “More than half of wealthy investors brace for a stock market sell-off, more turbulence in 2020”

The one report to focus on

In the midst of popular belief articles, there is often an outlier that describes the winning contrarian theme. This time, it is Time that delivers the wisdom.

The article reviews the key areas, putting them into proper perspective to show that there are desirable positives offering good prospects.

The bottom line

December offers the potential for buying value stocks at good prices, driven by both “loss harvesting” and the prevalent weak views about 2020 prospects. Looking at the calendar, we have:

  • Three full weeks of pre-Christmas and pre-Hanukkah stock market trading
  • The Christmas and Hanukkah holiday week, with regular stock trading on Monday, Thursday and Friday along with a shortened trading day on Tuesday
  • The New Year holiday week, with no trading on Wednesday (January 1)

Those last two, chopped-up weeks often see smaller trading volume, but they can offer special values. So, if you can, check out what is happening on those trading days or make use of some limit buy orders.

The goal is to have a desirable stock portfolio heading into 2020 because economic growth and a bull market are coming.

Bitcoin Is Crashing Again

Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Value Goes Down : Illustration

Bitcoin is going down. It is in a bear market.

That is bad news if you are a short-term holder and good news if you are a long-term acquirer.

I reiterate, all you need to know is which way bitcoin (BTC) is going in the long term to develop a very profitable strategy. Get the direction wrong and you will lose. If you don’t “know” the direction, you are ill advised to play.

I believe the direction is up and significantly up, but for now in the short term it is down.

Now to get a view of how things can pan out it’s best to remove as much noise as possible. The easy way to do this is to use moving averages. The trouble is everyone is doing that, which tends to weaken the usefulness of that tool. Anyway, here is BTC with a 200 moving day average, which is the long-term indicator many watch.

Today In: Money

Classically, the current breakdown would be considered bearish. I’m not a fan of moving averages because they change with the current price as it changes, so that leaves a misleading trail. They also tell you after the event that things are bearish. Now the moving average says the market is moving up on average and only gives a sell hugely below the high. In volatile markets this is a chronic problem.

So what I sometimes do is “doctor” the chart manually to de-noise it. The recent sharp rise and fall is pure noise:

Something hit the price then an event (the president of China spoke on blockchain) poked it up. These events are outside of “the trend” so let’s imagine they didn’t happen. Like a soviet political artist, let’s airbrush these inconvenient events from history.

You get this:

Now that’s a pretty clear picture. Bitcoin is tanking towards a capitulation. That bottom looks to be quite near in terms of time but the bottom is hard to call. Here are some ideas:

I think the high and low bounds are unlikely but you can’t really guess or for that matter buy the low because a capitulation, even though it looks important on the chart later, is often an ephemeral moment that only exists for minutes and trades little volume.

To reverse this trend will not take much but to do so will need a catalyst and there is none in sight at the moment. Instead there looks to be a hodlers’ opportunity to get some cheap coins coming up.

 

The Stock Market’s 25% Gain Is Totally Due To Higher Valuations And Not Earnings

Federal Reserve

The S&P 500 closed at 3,141 on Friday, up 634 points for the year or 25.3%. Over the same 11 months the Dow 30 has risen 4,724 points or 20.3% to 28,051. When you compare these gains vs. the S&P 500 earnings being slightly down for 2018, all the increase has come from investors valuing the earnings at a higher multiple.

While earnings have been flat valuations have risen

At the beginning of the year FactSet’s analysis had the S&P 500 earnings to be approximately $174 for 2019. The S&P 500’s P/E multiple on its forward earnings was 14.4x. As of last week the S&P’s 2019 earnings estimate had fallen to $162.84 (compared to $161.45 in 2018), down 6.4%, which has increased the S&P 500’s current P/E multiple to 19.3x.

The decrease in earnings has been driven by lower profit margins since revenues have increased in the low-single digits. Overall the lower margins have offset the increase in revenues.

Over 2019 the S&P 500’s forward P/E multiple has risen from about 14.4x to 17.6x. To account for the decrease in the P/E multiple from the current 19.3x analysts are expecting almost a 10% increase in earnings next year to $178.70.

While the forward 17.6x P/E multiple is higher than the 10-year average, as time goes by, and if the multiple does not appreciably decrease, the 10-year average will creep up to the 5-year average.

2019’s rallying cry has been “Don’t Fight The Fed”

As 2018 ended investors were concerned that the economy could enter a recession sooner rather than later, driven by the Fed’s four rate increases in 2018 and what, if any, outcome could come from Trump’s trade war with China.

Fed Chairman Powell announced on December 19, 2018, that while the Fed Funds rate was increasing to 2.5%, this would be the last rate increase, at least for a while.

The market’s initial rebound in 2019 was probably more due to recession fears easing and “knowing” that the Fed had stopped tightening certainly helped. There have been various ebbs and flows regarding the China trade war over the year, but overall this has been more of a drag on the market and business investment than a positive.

Then over the course of 2019 the Fed has lowered the Fed Fund rates three times. It also announced in September that it would start to increase its balance sheet, reversing a trend started in earnest in 2018. As the Fed has lowered rates and pumped money into the financial system investors have looked to equities for better returns.

A Step By Step Guide To Building A Profitable Technology Business

This guide will show you how to build a profitable technology business by quickly learning what customers want and will pay for so that you don’t waste your resources in ineffective strategies and solutions.

Building a technology business is unlike building any other business. Startups leverage technology to serve customers at scale. Creating this technology requires a series of validation, iteration, and sometimes complete changes of plan.

The search period that every technology startup goes through to find a scalable and repeatable business model with a product that solves a problem and worthy of customers’ money is what makes building a startup unique.

For decades, the principles, methodologies and approaches used to build non-technology businesses were applied to launch and grow technology startups. In a nutshell, once you understand the market, if you build and promote a solid product, customers will use and pay for it. This approach proved ineffective for technology startups. Findings show that close to 45% of startups fail due to lack of market need.

For startups, the learn-build-promote approach skips the business model search period and assumes that the created solution is valid and worthy of customers’ attention and money. While a few startups sometimes quickly hit the sweet spot, the majority realize a need for major changes in the product or business model. In many cases, lessons learned from product launches suggest a complete change of direction meaning building a different product as if the team is starting from scratch.

A startup will always be evolving no matter how careful the founders are in trying to build a product people love. The goal is to make smaller mistakes especially in the early risky stages. This guide will show you how to build a profitable technology business by quickly learning what customers want and will pay for so that you don’t waste resources in ineffective strategies and solutions.

1. Identify A Need

Ideas are nothing more than proposed solutions to a problem or a need. While there are countless business opportunities, the more urgent the need is for a solution, the more likely a product will be used. The first step is to measure the urgency of an identified need.

  1. Are people paying for an alternative solution?
  2. What’s the consequence of not having a solution? Will they lose money, waste time or incapable of getting an important job done?
  3. Is it an unavoidable problem?
  4. Are there underrepresented or underserved segments?

Answering those key questions is the first step in evaluating whether your solution is worth creating. The last question can reveal opportunities for differentiation through concentration in which your solution can be customized for a specific group of people even in the existence of large competitors.

This stage is more like an entrepreneur’s homework before interacting with key stakeholders like customers. By the end of this stage, you should be able to write the first version of your value proposition statement: For [customer segment] who is dissatisfied with [drawbacks of existing solutions], our product provides [benefits/differentiation].

2. Validate The Need

Many ideas look great on paper but are not valid in practice. Building and marketing a product is one way of knowing whether the solution is valid. However, this approach is long, costly and the reason many startups fail. Adding a few steps before product development will significantly minimize costs and startup risk. The goal from those steps is to build in response to demand.

A product is created to solve customers’ problems. Therefore, only the customer can tell if there is an urgent need and if they’re willing to pay for a different solution. As such, the first step in validating a need is customer interviews.

The benefits of interviewing potential buyers go beyond gathering insights. Think of your group of interviewees as your mentors, marketers and investors. They’re mentors because they can help you build a product they need. They’re marketers because they can help you spread the word and attract other customers. Finally, they’re investors because they can help you fund the early stages by committing to the solution early on.

You can gather your group of interviewees by leveraging online and offline communities, social media sites, cold outreach, your network or any channel that allows you to connect with your target buyers.

The goal from the interviews is to find consistency in respondents’ answers who should deliberately indicate whether the problem is worth solving or not. If it is, move to the next stage and if not, let your interviewees tell you what need you should be focused on addressing instead.

3. Validate The Solution

It can be tempting to move straight to product development based on interviewees’ indication of a need and request for a solution. In reality, many of the things we say we will do are different from the things we end up doing. In other words, while insights gathered from the interviews should be taken as a strong validation signal, it isn’t until they commit to the solution and use it that we know we have proof. Follow these four steps to quantitatively validate a solution.

1) Chances are, through research and customer interviews, you have a clear idea how the product should look and function. Before building it, design it. As noted earlier, one of the benefits of involving customers since the beginning is their contribution as mentors or guides. Invite a few of your interviewees to review your product designs and help you picture the product they wish they could use.

There are many reasons why you should start with product designs. First, they are quicker to create. Second, every software development project starts with a design phase which means you would have started with it anyways. Finally, designs are great for testing ideas because you can modify them quickly without costly and time-consuming redevelopment.

2) Turn the designs into a clickable prototype. There are many tools that can help you build prototypes even if you don’t have a programming background. The prototype, at this stage, will not be the solution that customers use, it will serve as a presentation tool for the next step.

3) Create and sell a mafia offer. If interviewees collaborated to create the designs and prototype, and if the need is truly valid, there shouldn’t be a reason future users will not be willing to commit financially to an offer that is very hard to resist.

It is common at this stage to see hesitations and objections. It is the moment you learn if future buyers were honestly interested in the solution. Surprisingly, most, if not all, of your interviewees will want to pass. For instance, in one of my first startup ventures, out of close to 500 interviewees who deliberately asked for a solution, only three paid. Had I built the product before selling the offer, I would have wasted tens of thousands of dollars.

4) In many cases, especially in a market with many alternative options, future buyers will prefer a functional product before committing to it. In this case, the fastest way to serve customers without necessarily spending the next few months turning the designs into a functional product is by creating a non-scalable solution delivery process.

It is a solution that combines existing tools and manual work to get customers’ job done. You may be familiar with the story of Airbnb where the founders used their own apartments and air mattresses to serve guests. Even after validating the need, the founders continued to hustle in connecting guests with hosts before building a powerful online and mobile matching platform. The founders of the food on-demand startup, DoorDash, followed a similar process in the early stages before building an app.

Those 4 solution validation steps will provide you with all the insights you need to build a product people are more likely to use. Best of all, you can accomplish all of the above in as little as one month. In fact, when the founders of DoorDash realized they were trying to solve the wrong problem, it took them one afternoon to iterate and get their first food order. They used a simple landing page, their cell phones and vehicle to take and deliver the orders.

4. Build Core Features

Having validated the need and solution, it is time to build your app idea. As noted earlier, one of the benefits of testing the validity of the solution with product designs is presenting a visual and interactive version of the product before it’s built. This is key to the development phase since by now, the features and visuals should have been adjusted and prepared for development based on customer insights and feedback.

One of the costly mistakes founders make at this stage is build an advanced product before quantitatively validating the core features. Those are essential features for delivering the value proposition of the solution. In other words, users will not be able to get their job done without them.

If users do not see value in core features, chances are good-to-have features will not make a difference. Therefore, it is wiser and safer to start by building and quickly testing the core features of the product.

If you don’t have a programming background or a technical co-founder, you need a team to help you build the product. With today’s freelancing platforms, it is easy to find people with complementary skills.

Turning an app idea into a product people use is unlike building any other software product. Prioritize working with entrepreneurial freelancers. Those are talents who have startup projects of their own and understand what it is like to build a startup. Best of all, they can potentially become your co-founders.

5. Test Riskiest Assumptions

While earlier stages seek to find problem/solution fit, this stage focuses on product/solution fit which essentially is how well you turn the proposed solution into a useful product. The riskiest assumption is people using the core features to get a certain benefit.

Key metrics like churn rate, user growth and customer lifetime value help in measuring the impact of the product in solving the identified problem. More importantly, the insights gathered from customer interviews will help you connect the dots to make educated conclusions about the product and the next steps.

6. Invest In Customer Acquisition

Entrepreneurs are encouraged to start building an audience as soon as possible, even before identifying a need in the market. Starting with an audience means having a group of people that can provide insights, invest in your idea through presales, refer others and more.

There are many channels that can help you build an audience. Some of them include writing articles, producing a podcast, launching events and actively engaging on social media. For instance, the founders of the social media management platform, Buffer, were able to build a growing audience of future users by actively writing blog and guest posts before launching the product.

Your main acquisition channel will depend on the product and target buyer. It’s important, at this stage, to at least start setting up the foundation of a repeatable acquisition channel whether it is content marketing, cold outreach, paid ads or others.

7. Learn-Build-Measure

A startup can have a solid product with paying customers and yet, fail to validate a business model at scale. For instance, if the cost of acquiring customers is higher than the return generated from retaining them, the business is operating at a loss.

With validated core features, the next step is to progressively improve the product by providing users with all the needed tools so that they stay longer or use it more often and refer others, thus increasing customer lifetime value and reducing customer acquisition cost.

Shortening performance evaluation cycles is how a startup can continue to test ideas of new features or initiatives quickly. Learn from the data, prioritize features, measure performance and start again with new additions.

In conclusion, to build a profitable technology business,

  1. Find out if there is an urgent need for a solution by studying the competition and talking to future buyers.
  2. Validate a solution by involving the customer in product designs, seeking their commitment and serving them by doing things that don’t scale.
  3. Build and validate the core features of the product; features that are essential to users’ ability to address the validated need.
  4. Set the foundation of an acquisition funnel to build a predictable revenue channel.
  5. Continue to improve the product as you gather and analyze data to enhance user experience and differentiate it from the competition.

The Bond Market Thinks We’re Having A Recession, The Stock Market Thinks We’re Having A Party. Who’s Right?

Mixed Messages

As we approach the end of the year and the decade, we have a significant divergence of opinion in the bond and stock markets about the economic conditions of the US and global economy. The bond market warning sirens had gone off earlier this year, but the stock market decided in June that all was well in the neighborhood. We may as well toss in some other perspectives as well, CFOs think we have a recession looming, but consumers think things are fine…and then there’s the Fed. Who’s right?

Bond market. The bond market experienced a yield curve inversion, actually a series of inversions, earlier in 2019. The chart below, from the Fed, shows the benchmark 1-year minus 2-year inversion happening around the end of August, and the 10-year minus the 3-month inverting in March and multiple times after.

Today In: Money

The chart also shows a ‘dis-inversion’ and the normalized yield curve. All clear, right? In the last three recessions (shaded bars on the chart below) the inversion reversed itself prior to recession.

Looking again at the three most recent recessions, notice the following:

The pattern, simply put, is an inversion, then the yield curve rights itself, as in the past three recessions, and a recession follows somewhere from 4-12 months later. There are a variety of potential explanations, including the observation (by the Fed) that inversions correlate with banks tightening credit policies. Credit tightening might then contribute to the recession. See the chart below, where credit tightening (blue line) rises commensurate with yield curve inversion (red line):

Bond market and interest rates seem to be saying recession, and this seems to be a global phenomenon. According to Charles Schwab & Co. and FactSet, about 70% of world developed economies are in a yield curve inversion. The stock market, on the other hand, seems to be saying otherwise.

Stock market. A pretty solid leading predictor of recessions is the stock market. Jeffery Klientop, Chief Global Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, analyzed the MSCI performance for the weeks preceding and following a recession.

The charts show that on average, over the last 6 recessions, the market tends to peak about 30 months prior to the recession start, and bottoms about 52 weeks later. This would infer that a decline precedes the recession. Now look at the current scenario:

Here the purple line illustrates that same pattern…until last December 24, when it becomes totally unlinked. While the bond market was suffering the inverted yield curve, the market was having a shindig. Explanation? It could be optimism over a pending trade deal with China or optimism over profits for 2020, which have a consensus estimate of about plus 5%. Irrespective, the bond market and stock market are far apart in their opinion on a pending slowdown.

CFOs weigh in. A September 2019 Duke University CFO survey indicates that more than half (53%) of U.S. CFOs believe that the U.S. will be in an economic recession by the third quarter of 2020, and 67% predict a recession by the end of 2020.

Eighty-one percent of African CFOs believe their countries will be in recession by the third quarter of 2020, as do the majority of CFOs in Asia (72%), Europe (69%), Canada (68%) and Latin America (65%).

John Graham, a finance professor at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and director of the survey said, “For the first time in a decade, no region of the world appears to be on solid enough economic footing to be the engine that pulls the global economy upward, trade wars and broad economic uncertainty are hurting economic outlooks worldwide.”

And now…a word from the Fed. The Fed has two models for predicting economic activity. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is showing a 4Q 2019 GDP prediction of 0.4%. That’s not zero, but it’s a whole percentage point below the October estimates. The NY Fed publishes recession probabilities and is showing a spike in probabilities:

Note that the probability line rising above about 33% seems to show a pending slowdown.

What to do now. Recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, but in a mixed-signal cycle, planning for the downturn seems more logical than planning against it. Keeping a balanced, albeit conservative, allocation in investments and rebalancing away from extreme valuations can reduce risk. Having transactional cash and credit lines in order will provide dry powder for opportunities. We’ve built a Recession Opportunity Kit™ that identifies 8 things businesses and individual can do going into a recession.